Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 18.213091 21.998961 26.197160 31.173036 36.883728 43.206541 50.709312
2025-05-04 13.056280 18.082714 24.258440 32.291567 42.342065 54.373803 69.726637
2025-05-11 10.052995 15.523586 22.801164 32.946240 46.449422 63.513696 86.378704
2025-05-18 7.785844 13.273112 21.107927 32.700906 48.950955 70.413115 100.314016
2025-05-25 5.960822 11.191853 19.183187 31.680483 50.037592 75.248133 111.580902
2025-06-01 4.761946 9.785658 17.950834 31.366034 51.892032 81.038322 124.257522
2025-06-08 3.664828 8.283621 16.287258 30.107327 52.120621 84.406393 133.601872
2025-06-15 3.159922 7.726061 16.059383 31.025420 55.619277 92.591867 150.097577
2025-06-22 2.493045 6.689351 14.822763 30.096276 56.083927 96.227784 160.076264
2025-06-29 2.195785 6.345661 14.777474 31.162773 59.783697 104.899198 177.846948
2025-07-06 1.657421 5.317430 13.253887 29.406177 58.620949 105.910891 184.027485
2025-07-13 1.475591 5.091114 13.286814 30.489654 62.325794 114.754851 202.560981
2025-07-20 1.271760 4.787263 13.183258 31.446395 66.139143 124.394598 223.474126
2025-07-27 1.098146 4.518748 13.126585 32.518263 70.298583 134.932316 246.483184
2025-08-03 0.927503 4.196790 12.885327 33.173731 73.723481 144.399120 268.163379
2025-08-10 0.742102 3.750252 12.256141 32.926881 75.413528 150.975719 285.382263
2025-08-17 0.562078 3.231542 11.329901 31.900756 75.492713 154.726906 298.040047
2025-08-24 0.444124 2.881130 10.762447 31.584545 76.902009 160.836746 314.841971
2025-08-31 0.324468 2.444167 9.845165 30.318749 76.267848 163.214919 325.348831
2025-09-07 0.280049 2.328917 9.843537 31.242018 80.191099 174.041981 350.785865
2025-09-14 0.207015 2.009460 9.132488 30.307636 80.118983 177.467301 363.429514
2025-09-21 0.180949 1.937523 9.205488 31.380143 84.419222 189.254047 391.201568
2025-09-28 0.121692 1.592069 8.251603 29.613626 82.354147 188.843069 397.218147